2026 March Madness Pool
All 32,768 possible outcomes analyzed — Sweet 16 through Championship
| Name Pool participant | Pts Points earned so far from correct Round 1 and Round 2 picks | Max The highest score this person can finish with if every remaining pick goes their way | Win Scenarios Number of the 32,768 possible tournament outcomes where this person wins the pool (ties split) | Equal Odds Win probability if every remaining game is a coin flip (50/50). Treats all outcomes as equally likely. | Projected Odds Win probability weighted by how likely each game outcome is, based on team strength ratings (KenPom adjusted efficiency). Favored teams winning counts more than upsets. | Path to Victory Summary of what needs to happen for this person to win, based on analyzing all their winning scenarios. Shows which champion and key teams appear most often in their wins. |
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How this works: There are 15 games left in the tournament (8 Sweet 16 + 4 Elite 8 + 2 Final Four + 1 Championship), which means 215 = 32,768 possible outcomes. Every single outcome is evaluated: each person's bracket is scored under that outcome, and whoever has the most points wins.
Equal Odds treats every game as a coin flip — all 32,768 outcomes count the same. Projected Odds weights each outcome by how likely it is to actually happen, using KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings. KenPom measures how many points a team scores and allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength. The difference between two teams' ratings, combined with expected game pace, produces an expected margin of victory, which is converted to a win probability.
Scoring: 1 pt (Round 1) • 2 pts (Round 2) • 4 pts (Sweet 16) • 8 pts (Elite 8) • 16 pts (Final Four) • 32 pts (Championship).