MARCH MADNESS 2026
32,768 outcomes analyzed // sweet 16 to championship
| Name | Pts | Max | Win Scenarios | Equal Odds | Projected | Path to Victory |
|---|
How this works: There are 15 games left in the tournament (8 Sweet 16 + 4 Elite 8 + 2 Final Four + 1 Championship), which means 215 = 32,768 possible outcomes. Every single outcome is evaluated: each person's bracket is scored under that outcome, and whoever has the most points wins.
Equal Odds treats every game as a coin flip — all 32,768 outcomes count the same. Projected weights each outcome by how likely it is to actually happen, using KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings. KenPom measures how many points a team scores and allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength. The difference between two teams' ratings, combined with expected game pace, produces an expected margin of victory, which is converted to a win probability.
Scoring: 1 pt (Round 1) • 2 pts (Round 2) • 4 pts (Sweet 16) • 8 pts (Elite 8) • 16 pts (Final Four) • 32 pts (Championship).