MARCH MADNESS 2026
128 outcomes analyzed // elite 8 to championship
| Name | Pts | Max | Win Scenarios | Win Probabilities | Path to Victory | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Each game 50/50 | By Game Odds ▼ | |||||
How this works: There are 7 games left in the tournament (4 Elite 8 + 2 Final Four + 1 Championship), which means 27 = 128 possible outcomes. Every single outcome is evaluated: each person's bracket is scored under that outcome, and whoever has the most points wins.
Each game 50/50 treats every game as a coin flip — all 32,768 outcomes count the same. By Game Odds weights each outcome by how likely it is to actually happen, using KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings. KenPom measures how many points a team scores and allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength. The difference between two teams' ratings, combined with expected game pace, produces an expected margin of victory, which is converted to a win probability.
Rankings are sorted by "By Game Odds" (KenPom-weighted win probability). Eliminated players are listed separately, sorted by current points.
Scoring: 1 pt (Round 1) • 2 pts (Round 2) • 4 pts (Sweet 16) • 8 pts (Elite 8) • 16 pts (Final Four) • 32 pts (Championship).